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pitch to voters on Election DayDisney expected to lay off thousands in its biggest round of cuts this yearDisney expected to lay off thousands in its biggest round of cuts this yearDisney expected to lay off thousands in its biggest round of cuts this yearAckman warns speculative trading is turning the stock market into a casinoAckman warns speculative trading is turning the stock market into a casinoAckman warns speculative trading is turning the stock market into a casinoRedMagic takes its RGB liquid-cooled gaming phone global as the 12 ProRedMagic takes its RGB liquid-cooled gaming phone global as the 12 ProRedMagic takes its RGB liquid-cooled gaming phone global as the 12 ProMalachi Jordan commits to St. John's, its first five-star recruit in 13 yearsMalachi Jordan commits to St. John's, its first five-star recruit in 13 yearsMalachi Jordan commits to St. John's, its first five-star recruit in 13 yearsSigns point to a big BioWare N7 Day celebration planned before the studio closedSigns point to a big BioWare N7 Day celebration planned before the studio closedSigns point to a big BioWare N7 Day celebration planned before the studio closedCritics of Ilhan Omar describe threats and intimidation, report saysCritics of Ilhan Omar describe threats and intimidation, report saysCritics of Ilhan Omar describe threats and intimidation, report saysGoogle app may replace its bottom bar tabs with Videos, Images and YouGoogle app may replace its bottom bar tabs with Videos, Images and YouGoogle app may replace its bottom bar tabs with Videos, Images and YouStar Wars Jedi: Survivor's final hidden secret found after three and a half yearsStar Wars Jedi: Survivor's final hidden secret found after three and a half yearsStar Wars Jedi: Survivor's final hidden secret found after three and a half yearsWar widens in the Black Sea, testing NATO's red linesWar widens in the Black Sea, testing NATO's red linesWar widens in the Black Sea, testing NATO's red linesGoogle confirms Android Family Hub, a new family space inside SettingsGoogle confirms Android Family Hub, a new family space inside SettingsGoogle confirms Android Family Hub, a new family space inside SettingsFive rescued off Kiribati after three months adrift at sea, four still missingFive rescued off Kiribati after three months adrift at sea, four still missingFive rescued off Kiribati after three months adrift at sea, four still missingDeath toll reaches 31 after Russian strikes hit a Ukrainian aid siteDeath toll reaches 31 after Russian strikes hit a Ukrainian aid siteDeath toll reaches 31 after Russian strikes hit a Ukrainian aid siteKing calls the slave trade a shameful chapter in Commonwealth addressKing calls the slave trade a shameful chapter in Commonwealth addressKing calls the slave trade a shameful chapter in Commonwealth addressScientists spot a potentially massive dwarf planet candidate beyond PlutoScientists spot a potentially massive dwarf planet candidate beyond PlutoScientists spot a potentially massive dwarf planet candidate beyond PlutoEating blueberries every day may ease depressive symptoms in older adultsEating blueberries every day may ease depressive symptoms in older adultsEating blueberries every day may ease depressive symptoms in older adultsIran warns of a 'new battlefield' after reported US strike on QeshmIran warns of a 'new battlefield' after reported US strike on QeshmIran warns of a 'new battlefield' after reported US strike on Qeshm
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USA • 2026-11-02, 10:58 ET • ~1 min read

Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but are the polls right?

ڈیموکریٹس کو وسط مدتی انتخابات سے بڑی امیدیں، لیکن کیا سروے درست ہیں؟

डेमोक्रेट्स को मध्यावधि चुनावों से बड़ी उम्मीदें, लेकिन क्या सर्वेक्षण सही हैं?

Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but are the polls right?

Key points

اہم نکات

मुख्य बातें

  • Democrats enter Tuesday's midterm elections with high hopes, backed by months of encouraging polls, a Republican president with weak approval ratings and voters frustrated by rising food and household costs.
  • Polls suggest Democrats lead in well over the 218 seats needed to win back the House, and are level or narrowly ahead in key Senate races, including surprising leads in Texas, Kansas and Maine and a tied race in South Carolina.
  • But the party has been let down by polls before: Donald Trump beat expectations in 2016 and 2024, and his 2020 defeat was narrower than surveys suggested.
  • ڈیموکریٹس منگل کے وسط مدتی انتخابات میں بڑی امیدوں کے ساتھ داخل ہو رہے ہیں، جن کی پشت پر مہینوں کے حوصلہ افزا سروے، کم مقبولیت والے ریپبلکن صدر اور کھانے اور گھریلو اخراجات بڑھنے سے پریشان ووٹرز ہیں۔ سروے بتاتے ہیں کہ ڈیموکریٹس ایوان کی واپسی کے لیے درکار 218 سے کہیں زیادہ نشستوں میں آگے ہیں، اور اہم سینیٹ مقابلوں میں برابر یا معمولی آگے ہیں، جن میں ٹیکساس، کنساس اور مین میں حیران کن برتری اور جنوبی کیرولائنا میں برابر کا مقابلہ شامل ہے۔ لیکن پارٹی پہلے بھی سروے سے مایوس ہو چکی ہے: ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ نے 2016 اور 2024 میں توقعات سے بہتر کارکردگی دکھائی، اور 2020 میں ان کی شکست سروے کی پیش گوئی سے کم فرق سے ہوئی۔ سروے کرنے والوں کا کہنا ہے کہ اب ووٹرز تک پہنچنا مشکل ہے، لیکن حالیہ برسوں میں وسط مدتی سروے زیادہ قابل اعتماد رہے ہیں، اور کئی سروے کی اوسط کسی ایک سروے سے زیادہ بھروسے مند ہوتی ہے۔
  • डेमोक्रेट्स मंगलवार के मध्यावधि चुनावों में बड़ी उम्मीदों के साथ उतर रहे हैं, जिनके पीछे महीनों के उत्साहजनक सर्वेक्षण, कम लोकप्रियता वाले रिपब्लिकन राष्ट्रपति और खाने व घरेलू खर्च बढ़ने से परेशान मतदाता हैं। सर्वेक्षण बताते हैं कि डेमोक्रेट्स सदन वापस पाने के लिए जरूरी 218 से कहीं अधिक सीटों पर आगे हैं, और प्रमुख सीनेट मुकाबलों में बराबर या मामूली आगे हैं, जिनमें टेक्सास, कंसास और मेन में चौंकाने वाली बढ़त और दक्षिण कैरोलिना में बराबरी का मुकाबला शामिल है। लेकिन पार्टी पहले भी सर्वेक्षणों से निराश हो चुकी है: डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने 2016 और 2024 में उम्मीदों से बेहतर प्रदर्शन किया, और 2020 में उनकी हार सर्वेक्षणों के अनुमान से कम अंतर से हुई। सर्वेक्षण करने वालों का कहना है कि अब मतदाताओं तक पहुंचना कठिन है, लेकिन हाल के वर्षों में मध्यावधि सर्वेक्षण अधिक विश्वसनीय रहे हैं, और कई सर्वेक्षणों का औसत किसी एक सर्वेक्षण से अधिक भरोसेमंद होता है।

Democrats enter Tuesday's midterm elections with high hopes, backed by months of encouraging polls, a Republican president with weak approval ratings and voters frustrated by rising food and household costs. Polls suggest Democrats lead in well over the 218 seats needed to win back the House, and are level or narrowly ahead in key Senate races, including surprising leads in Texas, Kansas and Maine and a tied race in South Carolina. But the party has been let down by polls before: Donald Trump beat expectations in 2016 and 2024, and his 2020 defeat was narrower than surveys suggested. Pollsters say reaching voters is harder now, yet midterm polls have been more reliable in recent years, and averages across many polls are more trustworthy than any single survey.

ڈیموکریٹس منگل کے وسط مدتی انتخابات میں بڑی امیدوں کے ساتھ داخل ہو رہے ہیں، جن کی پشت پر مہینوں کے حوصلہ افزا سروے، کم مقبولیت والے ریپبلکن صدر اور کھانے اور گھریلو اخراجات بڑھنے سے پریشان ووٹرز ہیں۔ سروے بتاتے ہیں کہ ڈیموکریٹس ایوان کی واپسی کے لیے درکار 218 سے کہیں زیادہ نشستوں میں آگے ہیں، اور اہم سینیٹ مقابلوں میں برابر یا معمولی آگے ہیں، جن میں ٹیکساس، کنساس اور مین میں حیران کن برتری اور جنوبی کیرولائنا میں برابر کا مقابلہ شامل ہے۔ لیکن پارٹی پہلے بھی سروے سے مایوس ہو چکی ہے: ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ نے 2016 اور 2024 میں توقعات سے بہتر کارکردگی دکھائی، اور 2020 میں ان کی شکست سروے کی پیش گوئی سے کم فرق سے ہوئی۔ سروے کرنے والوں کا کہنا ہے کہ اب ووٹرز تک پہنچنا مشکل ہے، لیکن حالیہ برسوں میں وسط مدتی سروے زیادہ قابل اعتماد رہے ہیں، اور کئی سروے کی اوسط کسی ایک سروے سے زیادہ بھروسے مند ہوتی ہے۔

डेमोक्रेट्स मंगलवार के मध्यावधि चुनावों में बड़ी उम्मीदों के साथ उतर रहे हैं, जिनके पीछे महीनों के उत्साहजनक सर्वेक्षण, कम लोकप्रियता वाले रिपब्लिकन राष्ट्रपति और खाने व घरेलू खर्च बढ़ने से परेशान मतदाता हैं। सर्वेक्षण बताते हैं कि डेमोक्रेट्स सदन वापस पाने के लिए जरूरी 218 से कहीं अधिक सीटों पर आगे हैं, और प्रमुख सीनेट मुकाबलों में बराबर या मामूली आगे हैं, जिनमें टेक्सास, कंसास और मेन में चौंकाने वाली बढ़त और दक्षिण कैरोलिना में बराबरी का मुकाबला शामिल है। लेकिन पार्टी पहले भी सर्वेक्षणों से निराश हो चुकी है: डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने 2016 और 2024 में उम्मीदों से बेहतर प्रदर्शन किया, और 2020 में उनकी हार सर्वेक्षणों के अनुमान से कम अंतर से हुई। सर्वेक्षण करने वालों का कहना है कि अब मतदाताओं तक पहुंचना कठिन है, लेकिन हाल के वर्षों में मध्यावधि सर्वेक्षण अधिक विश्वसनीय रहे हैं, और कई सर्वेक्षणों का औसत किसी एक सर्वेक्षण से अधिक भरोसेमंद होता है।

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