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USA • 2026-11-01, 09:53 ET • ~1 min read

Prediction market traders go door to door hunting a midterm edge

وسط مدتی انتخابات میں برتری کے لیے پیش گوئی مارکیٹ کے تاجر گھر گھر جا رہے ہیں

मध्यावधि चुनाव में बढ़त के लिए प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट के व्यापारी घर-घर जा रहे हैं

Prediction market traders go door to door hunting a midterm edge

Key points

اہم نکات

मुख्य बातें

  • As the US midterm elections approach, some traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are going door to door and digging into voter data to find an edge before they place bets.
  • Bloomberg reports that one trader, a former economics professor, has made more than $800,000 on Kalshi, while another has made over $1.5 million on Polymarket and placed more than $280,000 on Democrats winning the House.
  • The on-the-ground research has raised concerns about unfair information advantages and insider trading, and Polymarket has opened an investigation into suspicious trades during Israel's elections this week.
  • امریکی وسط مدتی انتخابات قریب آتے ہی پیش گوئی مارکیٹوں کالشی اور پولی مارکیٹ کے کچھ تاجر گھر گھر جا کر اور ووٹرز کے اعداد و شمار کا جائزہ لے کر شرط لگانے سے پہلے برتری حاصل کرنے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں۔ بلومبرگ کے مطابق ایک تاجر، جو پہلے معاشیات کے پروفیسر تھے، کالشی پر 8 لاکھ ڈالر سے زیادہ کما چکے ہیں، جبکہ دوسرے نے پولی مارکیٹ پر 15 لاکھ ڈالر سے زیادہ کمائے ہیں اور ڈیموکریٹس کے ایوان نمائندگان جیتنے پر 2 لاکھ 80 ہزار ڈالر سے زیادہ لگا رکھے ہیں۔ اس زمینی تحقیق سے غیر منصفانہ معلوماتی برتری اور اندرونی تجارت کے خدشات پیدا ہو گئے ہیں، اور پولی مارکیٹ نے اس ہفتے اسرائیل کے انتخابات کے دوران مشکوک تجارت کی تحقیقات شروع کر دی ہیں۔
  • अमेरिकी मध्यावधि चुनाव नज़दीक आते ही प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट कलशी और पॉलीमार्केट के कुछ व्यापारी घर-घर जाकर और मतदाता आंकड़ों की जांच करके दांव लगाने से पहले बढ़त हासिल करने की कोशिश कर रहे हैं। ब्लूमबर्ग के अनुसार एक व्यापारी, जो पहले अर्थशास्त्र के प्रोफेसर थे, कलशी पर 8 लाख डॉलर से अधिक कमा चुके हैं, जबकि दूसरे ने पॉलीमार्केट पर 15 लाख डॉलर से अधिक कमाए हैं और डेमोक्रेट्स के प्रतिनिधि सभा जीतने पर 2 लाख 80 हज़ार डॉलर से अधिक लगाए हैं। इस ज़मीनी शोध से अनुचित सूचना लाभ और इनसाइडर ट्रेडिंग की चिंताएं पैदा हो गई हैं, और पॉलीमार्केट ने इस सप्ताह इसराइल के चुनावों के दौरान संदिग्ध सौदों की जांच शुरू कर दी है।

As the US midterm elections approach, some traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are going door to door and digging into voter data to find an edge before they place bets. Bloomberg reports that one trader, a former economics professor, has made more than $800,000 on Kalshi, while another has made over $1.5 million on Polymarket and placed more than $280,000 on Democrats winning the House. The on-the-ground research has raised concerns about unfair information advantages and insider trading, and Polymarket has opened an investigation into suspicious trades during Israel's elections this week.

امریکی وسط مدتی انتخابات قریب آتے ہی پیش گوئی مارکیٹوں کالشی اور پولی مارکیٹ کے کچھ تاجر گھر گھر جا کر اور ووٹرز کے اعداد و شمار کا جائزہ لے کر شرط لگانے سے پہلے برتری حاصل کرنے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں۔ بلومبرگ کے مطابق ایک تاجر، جو پہلے معاشیات کے پروفیسر تھے، کالشی پر 8 لاکھ ڈالر سے زیادہ کما چکے ہیں، جبکہ دوسرے نے پولی مارکیٹ پر 15 لاکھ ڈالر سے زیادہ کمائے ہیں اور ڈیموکریٹس کے ایوان نمائندگان جیتنے پر 2 لاکھ 80 ہزار ڈالر سے زیادہ لگا رکھے ہیں۔ اس زمینی تحقیق سے غیر منصفانہ معلوماتی برتری اور اندرونی تجارت کے خدشات پیدا ہو گئے ہیں، اور پولی مارکیٹ نے اس ہفتے اسرائیل کے انتخابات کے دوران مشکوک تجارت کی تحقیقات شروع کر دی ہیں۔

अमेरिकी मध्यावधि चुनाव नज़दीक आते ही प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट कलशी और पॉलीमार्केट के कुछ व्यापारी घर-घर जाकर और मतदाता आंकड़ों की जांच करके दांव लगाने से पहले बढ़त हासिल करने की कोशिश कर रहे हैं। ब्लूमबर्ग के अनुसार एक व्यापारी, जो पहले अर्थशास्त्र के प्रोफेसर थे, कलशी पर 8 लाख डॉलर से अधिक कमा चुके हैं, जबकि दूसरे ने पॉलीमार्केट पर 15 लाख डॉलर से अधिक कमाए हैं और डेमोक्रेट्स के प्रतिनिधि सभा जीतने पर 2 लाख 80 हज़ार डॉलर से अधिक लगाए हैं। इस ज़मीनी शोध से अनुचित सूचना लाभ और इनसाइडर ट्रेडिंग की चिंताएं पैदा हो गई हैं, और पॉलीमार्केट ने इस सप्ताह इसराइल के चुनावों के दौरान संदिग्ध सौदों की जांच शुरू कर दी है।

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